This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
September 30
$34 Volume
3%
December 31
$160.7K Volume
16%
Resolved 5
January 31
$487.3K Volume
No
March 31
$360.7K Volume
No
April 30
$35.6K Volume
No
June 30
$79K Volume
No
July 31
$3.5K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Insurrection Act invoked by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 15%, September 30 at 2%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Insurrection Act invoked by?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31 at 15% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Insurrection Act invoked by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Insurrection Act invoked by?
$1.1M in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Insurrection Act invoked by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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