This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$1.1M Volume
4%
September 30
$61.6K Volume
18%
October 31
$386.9K Volume
35%
December 31
$169K Volume
45%
Resolved 2
July 15
$569.1K Volume
No
July 31
$243.8K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran charges Hormuz fees by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 45%, with October 31 close behind at 35%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Iran charges Hormuz fees by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 45%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Iran charges Hormuz fees by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (129 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Iran charges Hormuz fees by?
Total turnover stands at $2.5M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Iran charges Hormuz fees by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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