This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$1.5M Volume
1%
September 30
$490.7K Volume
4%
October 31
$26.2K Volume
7%
November 30
$18.8K Volume
10%
December 31
$4.1M Volume
15%
June 30, 2027
$251.7K Volume
25%
Resolved 8
March 13
No
March 31
$3.2M Volume
No
April 30
$5M Volume
No
May 31
$3.4M Volume
No
June 30
$4.4M Volume
No
July 31
$1.6M Volume
No
August 15
$61.8K Volume
No
August 22
$79.5K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by?
Even the leader is cheap - June 30, 2027 trades at 25%, December 31 at 15%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Iran leadership change by?
No strong consensus yet: June 30, 2027 tops the implied probabilities at just 25%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Iran leadership change by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jul 2027 (310 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Iran leadership change by?
Traders have put $24.1M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Iran leadership change by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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