This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
August 31
$659.8K Volume
1%
September 30
$254.8K Volume
3%
December 31
$198K Volume
10%
Resolved 4
April 30
$75K Volume
No
May 31
$1.5M Volume
No
June 30
$3.5M Volume
No
July 31
$2.2M Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 10%, with September 30 close behind at 2%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 10%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Israel withdraws from Lebanon by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Israel withdraws from Lebanon by?
Total turnover stands at $8.4M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Israel withdraws from Lebanon by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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