On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
December 31
$5.7K Volume
14%
Resolved 6
October 31
$2.5M Volume
No
November 7
$201.5K Volume
No
November 30
$347.8K Volume
No
December 31
$708.5K Volume
No
March 31
$144.6K Volume
No
June 30
$152K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 13%, January 31 at 1%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 13%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by?
$4.1M in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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