This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
December 31, 2026
$14.1K Volume
3%
Resolved 1
June 30, 2026
$365.4K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Jimmy Lai released by?
The market prices Yes at only 2%, with No at 98%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Jimmy Lai released by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 2% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Jimmy Lai released by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (129 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Jimmy Lai released by?
$379.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Jimmy Lai released by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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