AI · USA

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

$186.9K Volume
30/06/2027 23:59
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Alibaba
$22.8K Volume
22%
CATL
$28.5K Volume
19%
YMTC
$21.7K Volume
18%
DJI
$15.8K Volume
17%
Tencent
$19.2K Volume
16%
Baidu
$20.8K Volume
16%
Hesai
$12.2K Volume
15%
CXMT
$7.2K Volume
15%
BYD
$20.1K Volume
14%
Unitree
$18.6K Volume
14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.

A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.

Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.

An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.

A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.

For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.

If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
The field is wide open: Alibaba tops it at just 22%, with CATL close behind at 19%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Alibaba tops the implied probabilities at just 22%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027 market resolve?
Mark 30 Jun 2027 (311 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
$186.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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