This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Lai Ching-te impeached by?
The market prices Yes at only 3%, with No at 97%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Lai Ching-te impeached by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 3%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Lai Ching-te impeached by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Lai Ching-te impeached by?
Traders have put $1.4M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Lai Ching-te impeached by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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