This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 8%, while No trades at 92%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 8%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Traders have put $16.5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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