Geopolitics · mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

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$1.8M Volume

01/01/2027 04:59

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September 30

45%

December 31

$86.6K Volume

Resolved 1

June 30

$1.7M Volume

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by?

Even the leader is cheap - September 30 trades at 25%, December 31 at 4%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.

What do traders predict for Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by?

Right now the market's best guess is September 30 at 25% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.

When does the Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by?

Traders have put $1.8M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.

How can I trade Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.