This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Natural Disaster in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 28%, with No at 73%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Natural Disaster in 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 28% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Natural Disaster in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Natural Disaster in 2026?
Traders have put $241.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Natural Disaster in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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