This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for SBF released from custody in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 4%, with No at 96%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for SBF released from custody in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 4%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the SBF released from custody in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on SBF released from custody in 2026?
Total turnover stands at $448.5K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade SBF released from custody in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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