France · Politics

Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

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$4K Volume

12/10/2026 23:59

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<53

$142 Volume

53-55

$425 Volume

12%

56-58

$2.1K Volume

29%

59-61

$792 Volume

37%

62-64

$187 Volume

13%

65-67

$163 Volume

14%

68+

$120 Volume

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.

The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.

If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

The field is wide open: 59-61 tops it at just 36%, with 56-58 close behind at 29%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.

What do traders predict for Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

No strong consensus yet: 59-61 tops the implied probabilities at just 36%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 12 Oct 2026 (49 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?

$4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.

How can I trade Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.