This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
September 30
$43 Volume
26%
December 31
50%
Resolved 1
June 30
$46.7K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 31%, with September 30 close behind at 17%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 31%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by?
Total turnover stands at $46.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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