This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Past
<0.5%
$760 Volume
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Volume
8%
1.0–1.5%
$553 Volume
10%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Volume
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1.8K Volume
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3.2K Volume
23%
≥3.0%
$15.9K Volume
32%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Even the leader is cheap - ≥3.0% trades at 32%, 2.0–2.5% at 25%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
No strong consensus yet: ≥3.0% tops the implied probabilities at just 32%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US GDP growth in Q3 2026 market resolve?
Mark 29 Oct 2026 (66 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Traders have put $282 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade US GDP growth in Q3 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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