This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
1T–1.1T
$1.5K Volume
8%
1.1T+
$1.1K Volume
8%
<500B
$16.8K Volume
3%
500–600B
$454 Volume
7%
600–700B
$543 Volume
12%
700–800B
$670 Volume
43%
800–900B
$1.5K Volume
50%
900B–1T
$1.4K Volume
19%
Analysis & News
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Even the leader is cheap - 800–900B trades at 42%, 700–800B at 31%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is 800–900B at 42% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the US Trade Deficit in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 28 Feb 2027 (187 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Total turnover stands at $24K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US Trade Deficit in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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