This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 6%, with No at 95%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 6%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
$41.7K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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