The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for What will be the next Fed rate change?
No runaway leader here - Hike at 60% versus Cut at 40%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for What will be the next Fed rate change?
Traders give Hike a 60% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the What will be the next Fed rate change market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2028 (861 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on What will be the next Fed rate change?
Total turnover stands at $2.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade What will be the next Fed rate change on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
Similar Markets
No change65%YesNo25 bps increase35%YesNoNo change72%YesNo
25 bps increase25%YesNo
October Meeting41%YesNo
September Meeting35%YesNo
Pause–Pause–Pause64%YesNo
Other35%YesNo
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase29%YesNo
Good Morning79%YesNo
Productivity77%YesNo
Pause–Pause–Pause58%YesNo
Other41%YesNo
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 202711%
