This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Toy Story 5
$11.2K Volume
89%
Dune: Messiah
$963 Volume
7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$692 Volume
5%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1.4K Volume
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$737 Volume
3%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$651 Volume
1%
Resolved 1
The Odyssey
$1.6K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
At 89%, Toy Story 5 has pulled far clear of Movie B (50%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
With 89% implied for Toy Story 5, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Total turnover stands at $7.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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