This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$165.1K Volume
65%
Avengers: Doomsday
$281.1K Volume
36%
Dune: Messiah
$143K Volume
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$73.8K Volume
1%
Resolved 8
Wuthering Heights
$122.9K Volume
No
Scream 7
$67.6K Volume
No
Michael
$601K Volume
No
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
$47.2K Volume
No
Toy Story 5
$220K Volume
No
The Odyssey
$229.6K Volume
No
Project Hail Mary
$91.5K Volume
No
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$21.7K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
It's a genuine race: Spider-Man: Brand New Day edges the field at 65%, barely ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 36%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Traders give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 65% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
$7.7K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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