Senate · Midterms

Which Senate races will be within 1%?

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$1.2K Volume

03/11/2026 23:59

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Alaska

$28 Volume

25%

Maine

24%

Texas

$42 Volume

20%

New Hampshire

$13 Volume

15%

Nebraska

83%

Iowa

27%

Ohio (Special)

80%

New Mexico

$21 Volume

90%

Montana

$24 Volume

90%

North Carolina

11%

Virginia

$85 Volume

17%

Georgia

Michigan

26%

Minnesota

$42 Volume

78%

Florida (Special)

89%

Colorado

$925 Volume

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which Senate races will be within 1%?

It's a genuine race: New Mexico edges the field at 50%, barely ahead of Montana at 50%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.

What do traders predict for Which Senate races will be within 1%?

At 50% implied for New Mexico, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.

When does the Which Senate races will be within 1% market resolve?

The market runs until 3 Nov 2026 (72 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on Which Senate races will be within 1%?

$1.2K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.

How can I trade Which Senate races will be within 1% on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.