Tech · AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

View on Polymarket

$300 Volume

30/09/2026 00:00

View on Polymarket

View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket →

Past

Jun 30 Dec 31, 2025

Sep 30

1520

$28.8K Volume

10%

1530

$20.9K Volume

1540

$10.6K Volume

1550

$11.9K Volume

Resolved 1

1510

$80.7K Volume

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Even the leader is cheap - 1520 trades at 9%, 1540 at 5%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.

What do traders predict for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

No strong consensus yet: 1520 tops the implied probabilities at just 9%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.

When does the Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30 market resolve?

The market runs until 30 Sep 2026 (36 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Total turnover stands at $300. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.

How can I trade Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30 on Polymarket?

Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.