Israel x Iran · Middle East

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

$53.6K Volume
31/12/2026 00:00
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
The market prices Yes at only 18%, with No at 82%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 18%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$53.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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