This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 8%, while No trades at 93%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 8% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Jun 2027 (310 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Total turnover stands at $47K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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