This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 11%, while No trades at 89%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 11%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $723. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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