This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 6%, while No trades at 95%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 6%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Russia invade another country in 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Traders have put $410.4K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will Russia invade another country in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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