Oil · Iran

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

$6.8K Volume
30/09/2026 23:59
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August 31
$17.9K Volume
95%
September 15
$1.4K Volume
99%
September 30
$2.2K Volume
99%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
September 30 dominates the field at 97%; the nearest challenger, September 15, trades at just 97%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Traders price September 30 at a 97% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Houthis successfully target shipping by market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Sep 2026 (37 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Total turnover stands at $6.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Houthis successfully target shipping by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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