기술 예측 시장

기술 예측 시장은 산업의 미래를 거래할 수 있게 해줍니다 - 어떤 AI 모델이 다음에 출시될지, 회사가 실적 또는 출시 목표를 달성할지, 누가 누구를 인수할지, AI 경쟁이 어떻게 전개될지. 각 폴리마켓 가격은 연말 전에 제품이 출시될 확률인 65%와 같은 실시간 확률입니다.

기술은 발표에 따라 움직입니다 - 기조 연설, 출시 및 실적 발표. 이 분야를 면밀히 지켜본다면, 당신의 장점은 군중보다 실제 일정에 대해 더 잘 아는 것입니다.

100 활성 시장
Which company has best AI model end of August?Which company has best AI model end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic98%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI2%예아니오
$17.8만 거래량 7일 남음
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA88%예아니오
AppleApple9%예아니오
$20.1만 거래량 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA95%예아니오
AppleApple5%예아니오
$20.1만 거래량 31/08
Gemini 4.0 released by...?Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 3081%예아니오
October 3158%예아니오
$26.1만 거래량 01/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%예아니오
Z.aiZ.ai4%예아니오
$2.2만 거래량 7일 남음
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
October 3183%예아니오
September 3081%예아니오
$1.6만 거래량 01/10
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot40%예아니오
Z.aiZ.ai28%예아니오
$2.4만 거래량 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%예아니오
CATLCATL19%예아니오
$18.7만 거래량 30/06
Best AI model on August 24?Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-high99%예아니오
claude-opus-5-max3%예아니오
$1.8만 거래량 오늘 마감
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Which company has the best AI model end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic91%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI5%예아니오
$17.8만 거래량 30/09
GPT-6 released by…?GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 202670%예아니오
November 30, 202660%예아니오
$155.4만 거래량 01/01
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%예아니오
AppleApple4%예아니오
$9,268 거래량 31/08
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA72%예아니오
AppleApple14%예아니오
$20.1만 거래량 31/12
Next Claude Opus released by...?Next Claude Opus released by...?
December 3196%예아니오
October 3182%예아니오
$7,738 거래량 01/01
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-1948%예아니오
12-1545%예아니오
$7,616 거래량 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai57%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot30%예아니오
$2.4만 거래량 31/08
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
June 301%
December 313%
$11.5만 거래량 01/01
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 156%예아니오
September 21–September 276%예아니오
$1.3만 거래량 01/11
AI data center in space by...?AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 20262%
December 31, 202718%
$4.2만 거래량 01/01
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple93%예아니오
AlphabetAlphabet6%예아니오
$7,429 거래량 31/08
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
AnthropicAnthropic70%예아니오
xAIxAI12%예아니오
$17.8만 거래량 31/12
Best AI model on August 31?Best AI model on August 31?
claude-opus-5-high54%예아니오
claude-opus-5-max45%예아니오
$1.8만 거래량 31/08
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI51%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot43%예아니오
$6,308 거래량 30/09
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
OpenAIOpenAI74%예아니오
Microsoft AIMicrosoft AI9%예아니오
$6,337 거래량 31/10
OpenAI’s Astra released by…?OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
October 3189%예아니오
September 3078%예아니오
$32.5만 거래량 01/11
SSI public model released by…?SSI public model released by…?
October 3162%예아니오
September 3039%예아니오
$4.8만 거래량 01/11
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%예아니오
September 3091%예아니오
$5,147 거래량 01/07
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot14%예아니오
$2.2만 거래량 30/09
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot78%예아니오
AlibabaAlibaba11%예아니오
$5,495 거래량 31/08
Will Claude go down on __ days in August?Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
8-1084%예아니오
5-78%예아니오
$4,348 거래량 31/08
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Which company has the best AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic86%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI6%예아니오
$17.8만 거래량 31/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 3194%예아니오
August 272%예아니오
$6,209 거래량 01/09
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
December 31, 20268%
December 31, 202769%
$6.4만 거래량 01/01
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+79%예아니오
55%+48%예아니오
$4.6만 거래량 31/12
Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?
$800-$900B69%예아니오
$700-$800B16%예아니오
$2,965 거래량 31/08
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 3069%예아니오
September 305%예아니오
$6,209 거래량 01/10
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot45%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI35%예아니오
$3,527 거래량 30/09
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
GoogleGoogle40%예아니오
MetaMeta23%예아니오
$3,358 거래량 31/10
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
83%
확률
예 아니오
$18.7만 거래량 31/12
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic84%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI14%예아니오
$6,211 거래량 30/09
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
August 311%
December 315%
$12.8만 거래량 01/01
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+71%예아니오
55%+45%예아니오
$4.4만 거래량 31/12
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 202744%예아니오
June 30, 202732%예아니오
$109.8만 거래량 01/01
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ChatGPTChatGPT67%예아니오
ParentSquareParentSquare23%예아니오
$2,192 거래량 5일 남음
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3034%예아니오
August 3110%예아니오
$2,113 거래량 01/10
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+75%예아니오
50%+56%예아니오
$4만 거래량 31/12
Best AI model on September 7?Best AI model on September 7?
claude-opus-5-high51%예아니오
claude-opus-5-max33%예아니오
$1.8만 거래량 07/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%예아니오
$5.50-$6.0020%예아니오
$4,468 거래량 31/12
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta38%예아니오
GoogleGoogle17%예아니오
$3,697 거래량 31/10
2027년 이전에 어떤 회사가 인수될까요?2027년 이전에 어떤 회사가 인수될까요?
PayPalPayPal46%예아니오
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%예아니오
$1,818만 거래량 31/12
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ShadowrocketShadowrocket94%예아니오
HotSchedulesHotSchedules7%예아니오
$1,770 거래량 5일 남음
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic79%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI20%예아니오
$6,211 거래량 31/10
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic97%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI2%예아니오
$6,211 거래량 31/08
GitHub.com critical incident by...?GitHub.com critical incident by...?
September 1586%예아니오
September 3071%예아니오
$1,719 거래량 30/09
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%예아니오
$0.75-$1.0024%예아니오
$1,713 거래량 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%예아니오
$5.00-$5.5021%예아니오
$2,976 거래량 31/08
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
GoogleGoogle84%예아니오
AlibabaAlibaba9%예아니오
$2,522 거래량 30/09
GTA 6 launch postponed again? GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10%
확률
예 아니오
$70.6만 거래량 19/11
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
45%+85%예아니오
40%+78%예아니오
$4.1만 거래량 31/12
Longest GitHub critical incident in August?Longest GitHub critical incident in August?
6-12 hours89%예아니오
<1 hour6%예아니오
$2,540 거래량 31/08
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
HotSchedulesHotSchedules94%예아니오
ShadowrocketShadowrocket6%예아니오
$1,518 거래량 5일 남음
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta52%예아니오
AlibabaAlibaba20%예아니오
$3,697 거래량 30/09
Second-best AI Lab end of August?Second-best AI Lab end of August?
GoogleGoogle83%예아니오
MetaMeta10%예아니오
$1,906 거래량 31/08
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+94%예아니오
50%+61%예아니오
$2만 거래량 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai34%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot28%예아니오
$2.4만 거래량 31/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%예아니오
$6.00-$6.5026%예아니오
$4,468 거래량 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0030%예아니오
$4.00-$4.5027%예아니오
$2,976 거래량 31/10
ChatGPT Outage by....?ChatGPT Outage by....?
September 3088%예아니오
September 1585%예아니오
$2,439 거래량 01/09
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
확률
예 아니오
$1,238 거래량 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%예아니오
$0.50-$0.5530%예아니오
$2,224 거래량 31/10
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
GoogleGoogle83%예아니오
ByteDanceByteDance5%예아니오
$1,626 거래량 30/09
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Erling HaalandErling Haaland19%예아니오
Bad BunnyBad Bunny14%예아니오
$9만 거래량 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0025%예아니오
$3.00+24%예아니오
$2,124 거래량 31/10
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
확률
예 아니오
$4만 거래량 30/06
Longest GitHub critical incident in September?Longest GitHub critical incident in September?
6-12 hours34%예아니오
1-3 hours21%예아니오
$2,540 거래량 30/09
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
87%
확률
예 아니오
$28.4만 거래량 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5554%예아니오
$0.45-$0.5032%예아니오
$2,224 거래량 31/08
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple44%예아니오
AlphabetAlphabet32%예아니오
$7,429 거래량 31/12
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%예아니오
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat14%예아니오
$22.8만 거래량 31/12
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$4.8만 거래량 31/12
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 3151%예아니오
September 3038%예아니오
$112.3만 거래량 01/11
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic94%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI4%예아니오
$799 거래량 31/08
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
OpenAIOpenAI97%예아니오
MetaMeta1%예아니오
$6,337 거래량 31/08
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%예아니오
$5.50-$6.0022%예아니오
$4,468 거래량 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+76%예아니오
1490+71%예아니오
$11만 거래량
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+54%예아니오
60%+27%예아니오
$2.2만 거래량 31/12
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic67%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI33%예아니오
$731 거래량 30/09
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%예아니오
Rigetti79%예아니오
$17.3만 거래량 31/12
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?
August 3117%
September 3057%
$626 거래량 01/10
What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Tesla91%예아니오
Texas58%예아니오
$2,559 거래량 7일 남음
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0039%예아니오
$3.00-$3.2526%예아니오
$2,124 거래량 31/08
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba44%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot26%예아니오
$1,199 거래량 30/09
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Z.aiZ.ai48%예아니오
MoonshotMoonshot24%예아니오
$1,638 거래량 30/09
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
50%+92%예아니오
45%+89%예아니오
$566 거래량 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad BunnyBad Bunny13%예아니오
Erling HaalandErling Haaland12%예아니오
$16만 거래량 31/12
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
$ANTH41%예아니오
$ANT9%예아니오
$7.7만 거래량 31/12
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot32%예아니오
Z.aiZ.ai29%예아니오
$1,638 거래량 31/10
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
1480+74%예아니오
1490+28%예아니오
$6만 거래량
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot62%예아니오
Z.aiZ.ai30%예아니오
$1,638 거래량 31/08
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
GoogleGoogle74%예아니오
OpenAIOpenAI10%예아니오
$2,522 거래량 31/10
폴리마켓에서 더 보기 →

기술 시장 FAQ

폴리마켓에서 어떤 기술 시장이 있나요?

AI 모델 및 제품 출시, 대형 기술 실적 및 이정표, IPO 및 인수, 그리고 더 넓은 AI 경쟁(OpenAI, Google, Anthropic 등).

기술 시장은 어떻게 해결되나요?

명시된 날짜까지의 명확한 공개 이벤트를 기준으로 - 공식 출시, 실적 보고서 또는 확인된 거래. 정확한 트리거에 대한 해결 규칙을 읽어보세요.

기술 시장에서의 장점은 무엇인가요?

실제 배송 날짜와 출시 패턴을 아는 것입니다. 회사들은 자주 자가 설정한 마감일을 놓치므로, 현실적인 일정이 과대 광고를 이깁니다.

5분 또는 과대 광고 시장은 거래할 가치가 있나요?

단기 과대 광고 시장은 빠른 거래자와 뉴스 변동에 의해 지배됩니다. 초보자는 연구가 효과를 발휘하는 더 긴 이정표 시장에서 더 잘 수행합니다.

폴리마켓 트레이닝을 무료로 시작하세요
가상 돈으로 예측 시장 거래하기. 실제 가격, 제로 리스크. 리더보드에서 경쟁하세요.
$1K
가상 자금
500+
마켓
$0
실제 리스크
자세히 보기
실제 가격 제로 리스크 리더보드