Marchés de Prédiction Technologique

Les marchés de prédiction technologique vous permettent de trader l'avenir du secteur - quel modèle IA sortira ensuite, si une entreprise atteindra un objectif de résultats ou de lancement, qui rachète qui, et comment se joue la course à l'IA. Chaque prix sur Polymarket est une probabilité en direct, par exemple une probabilité de 65 % qu'un produit sorte avant la fin de l'année.

La tech avance au rythme des annonces : keynotes, sorties et conférences de résultats. Si vous suivez le secteur de près, votre avantage est de connaître les vrais calendriers mieux que le marché.

100 marchés actifs
Which company has best AI model end of August?Which company has best AI model end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic98%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI2%OuiNon
$178,1 k Vol 7 jours restants
Largest Company end of September?Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIANVIDIA88%OuiNon
AppleApple9%OuiNon
$201,2 k Vol 30/09
Largest Company end of August?Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIANVIDIA95%OuiNon
AppleApple5%OuiNon
$201,2 k Vol 31/08
Gemini 4.0 released by...?Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 3081%OuiNon
October 3158%OuiNon
$260,9 k Vol 01/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
AlibabaAlibaba94%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai4%OuiNon
$21,7 k Vol 7 jours restants
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
October 3183%OuiNon
September 3081%OuiNon
$15,6 k Vol 01/10
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot40%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai28%OuiNon
$23,6 k Vol 30/09
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%OuiNon
CATLCATL19%OuiNon
$186,9 k Vol 30/06
Best AI model on August 24?Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-high99%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max3%OuiNon
$18,5 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Which company has the best AI model end of September?Which company has the best AI model end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic91%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI5%OuiNon
$178,1 k Vol 30/09
GPT-6 released by…?GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 202670%OuiNon
November 30, 202660%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 01/01
3rd Largest Company end of August?3rd Largest Company end of August?
AlphabetAlphabet95%OuiNon
AppleApple4%OuiNon
$9,3 k Vol 31/08
Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA72%OuiNon
AppleApple14%OuiNon
$201,2 k Vol 31/12
Next Claude Opus released by...?Next Claude Opus released by...?
December 3196%OuiNon
October 3182%OuiNon
$7,7 k Vol 01/01
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-1948%OuiNon
12-1545%OuiNon
$7,6 k Vol 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Z.aiZ.ai57%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot30%OuiNon
$23,6 k Vol 31/08
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
June 301%
December 313%
$114,8 k Vol 01/01
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 156%OuiNon
September 21–September 276%OuiNon
$12,8 k Vol 01/11
AI data center in space by...?AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 20262%
December 31, 202718%
$41,9 k Vol 01/01
2nd Largest Company end of August?2nd Largest Company end of August?
AppleApple93%OuiNon
AlphabetAlphabet6%OuiNon
$7,4 k Vol 31/08
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
AnthropicAnthropic70%OuiNon
xAIxAI12%OuiNon
$178,1 k Vol 31/12
Best AI model on August 31?Best AI model on August 31?
claude-opus-5-high54%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max45%OuiNon
$18,5 k Vol 31/08
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
OpenAIOpenAI51%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot43%OuiNon
$6,3 k Vol 30/09
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
OpenAIOpenAI74%OuiNon
Microsoft AIMicrosoft AI9%OuiNon
$6,3 k Vol 31/10
OpenAI’s Astra released by…?OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
October 3189%OuiNon
September 3078%OuiNon
$325,1 k Vol 01/11
SSI public model released by…?SSI public model released by…?
October 3162%OuiNon
September 3039%OuiNon
$48,3 k Vol 01/11
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%OuiNon
September 3091%OuiNon
$5,1 k Vol 01/07
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba67%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot14%OuiNon
$21,7 k Vol 30/09
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot78%OuiNon
AlibabaAlibaba11%OuiNon
$5,5 k Vol 31/08
Will Claude go down on __ days in August?Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
8-1084%OuiNon
5-78%OuiNon
$4,3 k Vol 31/08
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Which company has the best AI model end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic86%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI6%OuiNon
$178,1 k Vol 31/10
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 3194%OuiNon
August 272%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 01/09
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
December 31, 20268%
December 31, 202769%
$63,5 k Vol 01/01
Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+79%OuiNon
55%+48%OuiNon
$45,6 k Vol 31/12
Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?
$800-$900B69%OuiNon
$700-$800B16%OuiNon
$3 k Vol 31/08
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 3069%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 01/10
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
MoonshotMoonshot45%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI35%OuiNon
$3,5 k Vol 30/09
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
GoogleGoogle40%OuiNon
MetaMeta23%OuiNon
$3,4 k Vol 31/10
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
83%
de chance
Oui Non
$187 k Vol 31/12
Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic84%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI14%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 30/09
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
August 311%
December 315%
$127,8 k Vol 01/01
Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
50%+71%OuiNon
55%+45%OuiNon
$43,7 k Vol 31/12
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 202744%OuiNon
June 30, 202732%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 01/01
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ChatGPTChatGPT67%OuiNon
ParentSquareParentSquare23%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 5 jours restants
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 3034%OuiNon
August 3110%OuiNon
$2,1 k Vol 01/10
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+75%OuiNon
50%+56%OuiNon
$40,2 k Vol 31/12
Best AI model on September 7?Best AI model on September 7?
claude-opus-5-high51%OuiNon
claude-opus-5-max33%OuiNon
$18,5 k Vol 07/09
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
$6.00-$6.5023%OuiNon
$5.50-$6.0020%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 31/12
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta38%OuiNon
GoogleGoogle17%OuiNon
$3,7 k Vol 31/10
Quelles entreprises seront acquises avant 2027 ?Quelles entreprises seront acquises avant 2027 ?
PayPalPayPal46%OuiNon
MGM ResortsMGM Resorts34%OuiNon
$18,2 M Vol 31/12
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
ShadowrocketShadowrocket94%OuiNon
HotSchedulesHotSchedules7%OuiNon
$1,8 k Vol 5 jours restants
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
AnthropicAnthropic79%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI20%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 31/10
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic97%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI2%OuiNon
$6,2 k Vol 31/08
GitHub.com critical incident by...?GitHub.com critical incident by...?
September 1586%OuiNon
September 3071%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 30/09
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
$1.00-$1.2561%OuiNon
$0.75-$1.0024%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?GPU rental prices (H200) end of August?
$4.50-$5.0037%OuiNon
$5.00-$5.5021%OuiNon
$3 k Vol 31/08
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
GoogleGoogle84%OuiNon
AlibabaAlibaba9%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 30/09
GTA 6 launch postponed again? GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10%
de chance
Oui Non
$706,1 k Vol 19/11
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
45%+85%OuiNon
40%+78%OuiNon
$41,1 k Vol 31/12
Longest GitHub critical incident in August?Longest GitHub critical incident in August?
6-12 hours89%OuiNon
<1 hour6%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 31/08
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
HotSchedulesHotSchedules94%OuiNon
ShadowrocketShadowrocket6%OuiNon
$1,5 k Vol 5 jours restants
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
MetaMeta52%OuiNon
AlibabaAlibaba20%OuiNon
$3,7 k Vol 30/09
Second-best AI Lab end of August?Second-best AI Lab end of August?
GoogleGoogle83%OuiNon
MetaMeta10%OuiNon
$1,9 k Vol 31/08
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+94%OuiNon
50%+61%OuiNon
$20,1 k Vol 31/12
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Z.aiZ.ai34%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot28%OuiNon
$23,6 k Vol 31/10
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
$6.50+39%OuiNon
$6.00-$6.5026%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 31/10
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
$4.50-$5.0030%OuiNon
$4.00-$4.5027%OuiNon
$3 k Vol 31/10
ChatGPT Outage by....?ChatGPT Outage by....?
September 3088%OuiNon
September 1585%OuiNon
$2,4 k Vol 01/09
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,2 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
$0.45-$0.5035%OuiNon
$0.50-$0.5530%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 31/10
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
GoogleGoogle83%OuiNon
ByteDanceByteDance5%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 30/09
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Erling HaalandErling Haaland19%OuiNon
Bad BunnyBad Bunny14%OuiNon
$89,6 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?
$2.75-$3.0025%OuiNon
$3.00+24%OuiNon
$2,1 k Vol 31/10
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
de chance
Oui Non
$39,9 k Vol 30/06
Longest GitHub critical incident in September?Longest GitHub critical incident in September?
6-12 hours34%OuiNon
1-3 hours21%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 30/09
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
87%
de chance
Oui Non
$283,6 k Vol 31/12
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of August?
$0.50-$0.5554%OuiNon
$0.45-$0.5032%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 31/08
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
AppleApple44%OuiNon
AlphabetAlphabet32%OuiNon
$7,4 k Vol 31/12
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
WorkhorseWorkhorse24%OuiNon
Beyond MeatBeyond Meat14%OuiNon
$227,8 k Vol 31/12
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$48,2 k Vol 31/12
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 3151%OuiNon
September 3038%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 01/11
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of August?
AnthropicAnthropic94%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI4%OuiNon
$799 Vol 31/08
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
OpenAIOpenAI97%OuiNon
MetaMeta1%OuiNon
$6,3 k Vol 31/08
GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?GPU rental prices (B200) end of September?
$6.50-$7.0037%OuiNon
$5.50-$6.0022%OuiNon
$4,5 k Vol 30/09
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+76%OuiNon
1490+71%OuiNon
$109,9 k Vol
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+54%OuiNon
60%+27%OuiNon
$22 k Vol 31/12
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?
AnthropicAnthropic67%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI33%OuiNon
$731 Vol 30/09
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries89%OuiNon
Rigetti79%OuiNon
$173,1 k Vol 31/12
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by...?
August 3117%
September 3057%
$626 Vol 01/10
What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Elon post this week? (August 24 - August 30)
Tesla91%OuiNon
Texas58%OuiNon
$2,6 k Vol 7 jours restants
GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?GPU rental prices (H100) end of August?
$2.75-$3.0039%OuiNon
$3.00-$3.2526%OuiNon
$2,1 k Vol 31/08
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
AlibabaAlibaba44%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot26%OuiNon
$1,2 k Vol 30/09
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Z.aiZ.ai48%OuiNon
MoonshotMoonshot24%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 30/09
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
50%+92%OuiNon
45%+89%OuiNon
$566 Vol 31/12
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad BunnyBad Bunny13%OuiNon
Erling HaalandErling Haaland12%OuiNon
$159,8 k Vol 31/12
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
$ANTH41%OuiNon
$ANT9%OuiNon
$77,4 k Vol 31/12
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
MoonshotMoonshot32%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai29%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 31/10
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
1480+74%OuiNon
1490+28%OuiNon
$59,5 k Vol
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
MoonshotMoonshot62%OuiNon
Z.aiZ.ai30%OuiNon
$1,6 k Vol 31/08
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
GoogleGoogle74%OuiNon
OpenAIOpenAI10%OuiNon
$2,5 k Vol 31/10
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FAQ des Marchés Technologiques

Quels marchés technologiques sont sur Polymarket ?

Sorties de modèles IA et de produits, résultats et jalons des géants de la tech, IPO et acquisitions, et la course à l'IA au sens large (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic et plus).

Comment les marchés technologiques se résolvent-ils ?

Sur la base d'un événement public clair, à une date donnée - un lancement officiel, un rapport de résultats ou un accord confirmé. Lisez les règles de résolution pour le déclencheur exact.

Où est l'avantage dans les marchés technologiques ?

Connaître les vraies dates de sortie et les habitudes de lancement. Les entreprises manquent régulièrement les délais qu'elles se fixent, donc un calendrier réaliste bat l'engouement.

Les marchés de 5 minutes ou de hype valent-ils la peine d'être tradés ?

Les marchés de hype à court terme sont dominés par des traders rapides et des fluctuations d'actualités. Les débutants s'en sortent mieux sur des marchés de jalons plus longs où la recherche porte ses fruits.

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