🔬 예측 시장: 기술 & 과학

59 활성 시장

Tech & Science prediction markets — AI, space and technology

2026년 시가총액 기준 최대 IPO는?2026년 시가총액 기준 최대 IPO는?
SpaceXSpaceX65%예아니오
AnthropicAnthropic36%예아니오
$553.1만 거래량 31/12
미국이 ...까지 외계인의 존재를 공식 확인할까?미국이 ...까지 외계인의 존재를 공식 확인할까?
December 314%예아니오
September 301%예아니오
$6,548.7만 거래량 01/01
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 3196%예아니오
September 3091%예아니오
$5,147 거래량 01/07
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12%
확률
예 아니오
$3,895 거래량 31/12
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 2043%예아니오
20 to 3439%예아니오
$3,034 거래량 31/03
8월 홍콩 강수량은?8월 홍콩 강수량은?
<425mm80%예아니오
475-500mm15%예아니오
$9,847 거래량 01/09
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
171%예아니오
225%예아니오
$336.3만 거래량 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k99%예아니오
↑3.5k95%예아니오
$1,767 거래량 31/12
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
88%
확률
예 아니오
$4만 거래량 30/06
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202715%
$4.8만 거래량 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-9939%예아니오
100–11936%예아니오
$5,983 거래량 01/09
2026년 새로운 팬데믹? 2026년 새로운 팬데믹?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$621 거래량 31/12
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2800+85%예아니오
2825+83%예아니오
$1,767 거래량 31/08
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 20268%
December 31, 20268%
$3,528 거래량 01/01
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<564%예아니오
5-634%예아니오
$499 거래량 31/12
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7%
확률
예 아니오
$30.7만 거래량 31/12
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+99%예아니오
15,000+99%예아니오
$458 거래량 31/08
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$14.4만 거래량 31/03
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$81.1만 거래량 31/12
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
1382%예아니오
1412%예아니오
$335 거래량 31/08
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC46%예아니오
1.42–1.45ºC21%예아니오
$3,331 거래량 01/09
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
확률
예 아니오
$11.7만 거래량 31/12
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–1643%예아니오
17–1936%예아니오
$250 거래량 31/12
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
9%
확률
예 아니오
$1.2만 거래량 31/12
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 202836%예아니오
December 31, 202732%예아니오
$1,943 거래량 01/01
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
15%
확률
예 아니오
$34.1만 거래량 31/12
8월 서울 강수량은?8월 서울 강수량은?
250-300mm45%예아니오
<150mm44%예아니오
$373 거래량 01/09
Natural Disaster in 2026? Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
확률
예 아니오
$24.2만 거래량 31/12
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
063%예아니오
126%예아니오
$115.6만 거래량 31/03
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?
December 31, 20261%
December 31, 202715%
$1.1만 거래량 01/01
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17%
확률
예 아니오
$1.1만 거래량 31/12
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
확률
예 아니오
$57.9만 거래량 31/12
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
확률
예 아니오
$19.6만 거래량 31/12
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
확률
예 아니오
$14만 거래량 31/12
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 202768%예아니오
June 30, 202754%예아니오
$93.6만 거래량 01/01
100kt meteor strike in 2026? 100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5%
확률
예 아니오
$8,915 거래량 31/12
5kt meteor strike in 2026? 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29%
확률
예 아니오
$10 거래량 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
38%
확률
예 아니오
$8 거래량 31/12
8월 시애틀 강수량은?8월 시애틀 강수량은?
0.5" 미만0.5" 미만89%예아니오
0.5-1"0.5-1"11%예아니오
$234 거래량 01/09
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15950%예아니오
160-17936%예아니오
$335 거래량 31/12
8월 런던 강수량은?8월 런던 강수량은?
<30mm60%예아니오
30-40mm34%예아니오
$7,567 거래량 01/09
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5%
확률
예 아니오
$650 거래량 31/12
8월 뉴욕 강수량은?8월 뉴욕 강수량은?
6" 초과6" 초과66%예아니오
4-5"4-5"3%예아니오
$2,476 거래량 01/09
Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
2900+93%
3000+91%
$1,767 거래량 30/09
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
10%
확률
예 아니오
$10.2만 거래량 31/12
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
4%
확률
예 아니오
$2.3만 거래량 31/12
Human moon landing in 2026? Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$196.8만 거래량 31/12
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
SpaceX94%
OpenAI6%
$1.1만 거래량 31/12
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+88%예아니오
1200–12496%예아니오
$8.2만 거래량 10/01
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
9%
확률
예 아니오
$1.7만 거래량 31/12
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
89%
확률
예 아니오
$2,555 거래량 31/12
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
74%
확률
예 아니오
$8 거래량 31/12
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
October 31October 3169%예아니오
December 31December 3162%예아니오
$4,714 거래량
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
October 31October 3147%예아니오
August 30August 3042%예아니오
$1,442 거래량 01/01
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest99%예아니오
2nd hottest1%예아니오
$1,788 거래량 01/09
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 202653%예아니오
September 30, 202619%예아니오
$1,882 거래량 01/11
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record? Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97%
확률
예 아니오
$1,050 거래량 01/10
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below75%예아니오
8.0 – 8.19%예아니오
$2,360 거래량 04/01
Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$425 거래량 31/12
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