Mercados de Previsão de Israel

Os mercados de previsão de Israel cobrem os cenários centrais: resultados eleitorais, composição da coalizão, mandato do PM, eventos de segurança e guerra, e desenvolvimentos macroeconômicos. Os preços do Polymarket são atualizados em tempo real com base na profundidade do livro de ofertas.

Esses mercados são especialmente ativos em torno das datas de decisão: dia da eleição, reuniões do gabinete de segurança, sessões do governo. O volume reflete o interesse global nos eventos.

71 mercados ativos
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SimNão
August 25August 2599%SimNão
$2,5 mi Volume 30/09
Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027? Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$84,6 mil Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SimNão
September 3089%SimNão
$26,3 mi Volume 31/08
Quem será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?Quem será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SimNão
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SimNão
$33 mi Volume 31/12
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$79,4 mil Volume 31/12
Israel fechará seu espaço aéreo até...?Israel fechará seu espaço aéreo até...?
September 308%SimNão
August 312%SimNão
$27,4 mi Volume 01/10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SimNão
October 3113%SimNão
$6,8 mi Volume 01/01
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SimNão
September 3093%SimNão
$356,8 mil Volume 01/01
Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?
December 3149%SimNão
May 311%SimNão
$6 mil Volume 01/01
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arábia SauditaArábia Saudita10%SimNão
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SimNão
$4,2 mil Volume 31/12
Israel se retirará do Líbano até...?Israel se retirará do Líbano até...?
December 3110%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$8,4 mi Volume 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%SimNão
November 3050%SimNão
$3,6 mi Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%SimNão
September 1546%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$2,3 mil Volume 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SimNão
513%SimNão
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/08
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SimNão
September 302%SimNão
$22,3 mil Volume 01/01
Bank of Israel Decision in September?Bank of Israel Decision in September?
No Change90%SimNão
Decrease9%SimNão
$2,2 mil Volume 01/09
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
September 3012%SimNão
August 312%SimNão
$190,2 mil Volume 31/08
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2935%SimNão
20-2431%SimNão
$105,8 mil Volume 27/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
How many Israeli elections before government formed?How many Israeli elections before government formed?
171%SimNão
218%SimNão
$14,6 mil Volume 31/12
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
22%
chance
Sim Não
$3,7 mil Volume 27/10
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 316%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$306 mil Volume 31/08
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SimNão
Likud31%SimNão
$29,3 mil Volume 28/10
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SimNão
March 311%SimNão
$294 Volume 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$1,7 mi Volume 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$146 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SimNão
Lebanon9%SimNão
$143 Volume 31/12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
16%
chance
Sim Não
$9,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
23%
chance
Sim Não
$1,4 mil Volume 08/09
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud53%SimNão
YasharYashar46%SimNão
$236,6 mil Volume 27/10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$1,2 mi Volume
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$55 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%SimNão
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SimNão
$533,3 mil Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SimNão
May 312%SimNão
$341,6 mil Volume 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$194,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$30 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$4,1 mi Volume 01/01
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BélgicaBélgica17%SimNão
FinlandFinland13%SimNão
$28 Volume 31/12
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$137,3 mil Volume 31/08
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
91%
chance
Sim Não
$3 mil Volume 27/10
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SimNão
July 312%SimNão
$100,7 mil Volume 31/08
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
49%
chance
Sim Não
$611 Volume 31/12
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 304%
$140,3 mil Volume 01/10
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 mi Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$11 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SimNão
May 312%SimNão
$166,3 mil Volume 31/08
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$6 Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SimNão
June 301%SimNão
$21,8 mi Volume 01/01
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$7,1 mil Volume 31/12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 mil Volume 01/01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SimNão
December 31, 20268%SimNão
$940,1 mil Volume 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 mi Volume 01/01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
chance
Sim Não
$90 mil Volume 31/12
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$3 mil Volume 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$185,9 mil Volume 31/12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
11%
chance
Sim Não
$236 mil Volume 31/12
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
39%
chance
Sim Não
$1,5 mil Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 317%
June 301%
$477,9 mil Volume 01/01
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
94%
chance
Sim Não
$13,7 mil Volume 27/10
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20261%
$95,7 mil Volume 01/09
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
12%
chance
Sim Não
$1,1 mil Volume 31/12
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
20%
chance
Sim Não
$99,4 mil Volume 31/12
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$2 mil Volume 30/09
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
15%
chance
Sim Não
$484 Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 3117%SimNão
April 302%SimNão
$52,7 mil Volume 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$53,6 mil Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 mil Volume 01/01
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FAQ dos Mercados de Israel

Quais mercados de Israel existem no Polymarket?

Mercados eleitorais (quem ganha? contagem de assentos), formação de coalizão, ações do PM, eventos de segurança e decisões econômicas (cortes de taxa, mudanças de lei). Contratos binários e de múltiplos resultados.

O que movimenta os preços dos mercados de Israel?

Pesquisas, declarações políticas, desenvolvimentos de segurança e reportagens da mídia. Os preços reagem em minutos a notícias significativas.

Posso negociar de Israel?

Sim, através da conta Polygon do Polymarket. Acompanhe os mercados ao vivo em nosso site e abra uma conta através do nosso link de referência.

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