Israel Prediction Markets

Israel prediction markets cover the central scenarios: election outcomes, coalition composition, PM tenure, security and war events, and macro-economic developments. Polymarket prices in real time based on order-book depth.

These markets are especially active around decision dates - election day, security cabinet meetings, government sessions. Volume reflects global interest in the events.

71 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.5M Volume 30/09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$84.6K Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%YesNo
September 3089%YesNo
$26.3M Volume 31/08
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%YesNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%YesNo
$33M Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$79.4K Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
September 308%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$27.4M Volume 01/10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$6.8M Volume 01/01
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%YesNo
September 3093%YesNo
$356.8K Volume 01/01
Netanyahu out by...?Netanyahu out by...?
December 3149%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
$6K Volume 01/01
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia10%YesNo
VenezuelaVenezuela10%YesNo
$4.2K Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$8.4M Volume 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
$3.6M Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%YesNo
September 1546%YesNo
$2.9K Volume 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$2.3K Volume 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
Yes No
$1.7K Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%YesNo
513%YesNo
$1.7K Volume 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$1.7K Volume 31/08
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$22.3K Volume 01/01
Bank of Israel Decision in September?Bank of Israel Decision in September?
No Change90%YesNo
Decrease9%YesNo
$2.2K Volume 01/09
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
September 3012%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$190.2K Volume 31/08
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2935%YesNo
20-2431%YesNo
$105.8K Volume 27/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$1.7K Volume 31/12
How many Israeli elections before government formed?How many Israeli elections before government formed?
171%YesNo
218%YesNo
$14.6K Volume 31/12
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
22%
chance
Yes No
$3.7K Volume 27/10
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 316%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$306K Volume 31/08
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%YesNo
Likud31%YesNo
$29.3K Volume 28/10
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
$294 Volume 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$1.7M Volume 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$146 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%YesNo
Lebanon9%YesNo
$143 Volume 31/12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
16%
chance
Yes No
$9.7K Volume 31/12
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
23%
chance
Yes No
$1.4K Volume 08/09
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud53%YesNo
YasharYashar46%YesNo
$236.6K Volume 27/10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$1.2M Volume
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
chance
Yes No
$55 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%YesNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%YesNo
$533.3K Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%YesNo
May 312%YesNo
$341.6K Volume 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
chance
Yes No
$194.2K Volume 31/12
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$30 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$4.1M Volume 01/01
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BelgiumBelgium17%YesNo
FinlandFinland13%YesNo
$28 Volume 31/12
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$137.3K Volume 31/08
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
91%
chance
Yes No
$3K Volume 27/10
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$100.7K Volume 31/08
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
49%
chance
Yes No
$611 Volume 31/12
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 304%
$140.3K Volume 01/10
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2.1M Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$11 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%YesNo
May 312%YesNo
$166.3K Volume 31/08
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
17%
chance
Yes No
$6 Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$21.8M Volume 01/01
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
1%
chance
Yes No
$7.1K Volume 31/12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142.2K Volume 01/01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%YesNo
December 31, 20268%YesNo
$940.1K Volume 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3.5M Volume 01/01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$90K Volume 31/12
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes No
$3K Volume 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$185.9K Volume 31/12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
11%
chance
Yes No
$236K Volume 31/12
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
39%
chance
Yes No
$1.5K Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 317%
June 301%
$477.9K Volume 01/01
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
94%
chance
Yes No
$13.7K Volume 27/10
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20261%
$95.7K Volume 01/09
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
12%
chance
Yes No
$1.1K Volume 31/12
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
20%
chance
Yes No
$99.4K Volume 31/12
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
7%
chance
Yes No
$2K Volume 30/09
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
15%
chance
Yes No
$484 Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 3117%YesNo
April 302%YesNo
$52.7K Volume 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
chance
Yes No
$53.6K Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117.8K Volume 01/01
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Israel Markets FAQ

What Israel markets exist on Polymarket?

Election markets (who wins? seat counts), coalition formation, PM actions, security events, and economic decisions (rate cuts, law changes). Binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves Israel market prices?

Polls, political statements, security developments and media reporting. Prices react within minutes to significant news.

Can I trade from Israel?

Yes, via Polymarket's Polygon account. Track live markets on our site and open an account through our referral link.

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