Marchés de Prédiction en Israël

Les marchés de prédiction en Israël couvrent les scénarios centraux : résultats électoraux, composition des coalitions, durée de mandat du PM, événements de sécurité et de guerre, et développements macro-économiques. Polymarket fixe les prix en temps réel en fonction de la profondeur du carnet d'ordres.

Ces marchés sont particulièrement actifs autour des dates de décision : jour des élections, réunions du cabinet de sécurité, sessions gouvernementales. Le volume reflète l'intérêt mondial pour les événements.

71 marchés actifs
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%OuiNon
August 25August 2599%OuiNon
$2,5 M Vol 30/09
Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ? Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$84,6 k Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%OuiNon
September 3089%OuiNon
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?Qui sera le prochain Premier ministre d'Israël après les prochaines élections ?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%OuiNon
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%OuiNon
$33 M Vol 31/12
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$79,4 k Vol 31/12
Israël fermera-t-il son espace aérien d'ici...?Israël fermera-t-il son espace aérien d'ici...?
September 308%OuiNon
August 312%OuiNon
$27,4 M Vol 01/10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%OuiNon
October 3113%OuiNon
$6,8 M Vol 01/01
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%OuiNon
September 3093%OuiNon
$356,8 k Vol 01/01
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3149%OuiNon
May 311%OuiNon
$6 k Vol 01/01
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabie SaouditeArabie Saoudite10%OuiNon
VenezuelaVenezuela10%OuiNon
$4,2 k Vol 31/12
Israël se retirera-t-il du Liban d'ici...?Israël se retirera-t-il du Liban d'ici...?
December 3110%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$8,4 M Vol 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%OuiNon
November 3050%OuiNon
$3,6 M Vol 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%OuiNon
September 1546%OuiNon
$2,9 k Vol 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$2,3 k Vol 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%OuiNon
513%OuiNon
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/08
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%OuiNon
September 302%OuiNon
$22,3 k Vol 01/01
Bank of Israel Decision in September?Bank of Israel Decision in September?
No Change90%OuiNon
Decrease9%OuiNon
$2,2 k Vol 01/09
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
September 3012%OuiNon
August 312%OuiNon
$190,2 k Vol 31/08
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2935%OuiNon
20-2431%OuiNon
$105,8 k Vol 27/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,7 k Vol 31/12
How many Israeli elections before government formed?How many Israeli elections before government formed?
171%OuiNon
218%OuiNon
$14,6 k Vol 31/12
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
22%
de chance
Oui Non
$3,7 k Vol 27/10
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 316%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$306 k Vol 31/08
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%OuiNon
Likud31%OuiNon
$29,3 k Vol 28/10
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%OuiNon
March 311%OuiNon
$294 Vol 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$146 Vol 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%OuiNon
Lebanon9%OuiNon
$143 Vol 31/12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
16%
de chance
Oui Non
$9,7 k Vol 31/12
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
23%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,4 k Vol 08/09
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud53%OuiNon
YasharYashar46%OuiNon
$236,6 k Vol 27/10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$1,2 M Vol
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$55 Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%OuiNon
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%OuiNon
$533,3 k Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%OuiNon
May 312%OuiNon
$341,6 k Vol 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$194,2 k Vol 31/12
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$30 Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$4,1 M Vol 01/01
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BelgiqueBelgique17%OuiNon
FinlandFinland13%OuiNon
$28 Vol 31/12
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%OuiNon
August 311%OuiNon
$137,3 k Vol 31/08
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
91%
de chance
Oui Non
$3 k Vol 27/10
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%OuiNon
July 312%OuiNon
$100,7 k Vol 31/08
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
49%
de chance
Oui Non
$611 Vol 31/12
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 304%
$140,3 k Vol 01/10
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$11 Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%OuiNon
May 312%OuiNon
$166,3 k Vol 31/08
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$6 Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$21,8 M Vol 01/01
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,1 k Vol 31/12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 k Vol 01/01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%OuiNon
December 31, 20268%OuiNon
$940,1 k Vol 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 M Vol 01/01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$90 k Vol 31/12
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$3 k Vol 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$185,9 k Vol 31/12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
11%
de chance
Oui Non
$236 k Vol 31/12
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
39%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,5 k Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 317%
June 301%
$477,9 k Vol 01/01
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
94%
de chance
Oui Non
$13,7 k Vol 27/10
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20261%
$95,7 k Vol 01/09
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
12%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,1 k Vol 31/12
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
20%
de chance
Oui Non
$99,4 k Vol 31/12
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$2 k Vol 30/09
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
15%
de chance
Oui Non
$484 Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 3117%OuiNon
April 302%OuiNon
$52,7 k Vol 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
de chance
Oui Non
$53,6 k Vol 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 k Vol 01/01
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FAQ sur les Marchés en Israël

Quels marchés israéliens existent sur Polymarket ?

Marchés électoraux (qui gagne ? nombre de sièges), formation de coalition, actions du PM, événements de sécurité et décisions économiques (baisses de taux, changements de loi). Contrats binaires et à résultats multiples.

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