Mercados de Previsão do Médio Oriente

Os mercados de previsão do Médio Oriente atribuem preço às grandes questões da região - cessar-fogo, sanções, negociações nucleares, eleições e conflito - como probabilidades vivas que mudam a cada notícia. A Polymarkets acompanha os preços reais dos mercados de Israel, Irão, Gaza e Golfo, e deixa-o praticar sem risco no modo de treino antes de negociar na Polymarket.

80 mercados ativos
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SimNão
August 25August 2599%SimNão
$2,5 mi Volume 30/09
O acordo nuclear final entre EUA e Irã até...?O acordo nuclear final entre EUA e Irã até...?
31 de dezembro12%SimNão
November 307%SimNão
$16,2 mi Volume 01/01
Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027? Os EUA invadirão o Irã antes de 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$84,6 mil Volume 31/12
Quem será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?Quem será o próximo Primeiro-Ministro de Israel após as próximas eleições?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SimNão
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SimNão
$33 mi Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
September 3039%SimNão
September 1518%SimNão
$40,5 mil Volume 30/09
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$79,4 mil Volume 31/12
Líder do Irã muda até o final de 2026?Líder do Irã muda até o final de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei82%SimNão
Sem Chefe de Estado4%SimNão
$38,8 mi Volume 31/12
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
14%
chance
Sim Não
$22,4 mil Volume 31/12
USD x Iranian rials End of August?USD x Iranian rials End of August?
2.0-2.1M46%SimNão
2.1-2.2M34%SimNão
$20,6 mil Volume 31/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SimNão
October 3113%SimNão
$6,8 mi Volume 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
September 3094%SimNão
August 3177%SimNão
$21,9 mil Volume 30/09
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 311%
September 303%
$108 mil Volume 01/10
Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?
December 3149%SimNão
May 311%SimNão
$6 mil Volume 01/01
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3033%SimNão
September 1516%SimNão
$5 mil Volume 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2478%SimNão
August 1776%SimNão
$21,9 mil Volume 31/08
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arábia SauditaArábia Saudita10%SimNão
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SimNão
$4,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
August 225%
August 3130%
$3,5 mil Volume 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$2,3 mil Volume 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SimNão
513%SimNão
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by August 31?
↑ 2.0M97%SimNão
↑ 2.1M58%SimNão
$1,6 mil Volume 31/08
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 311%
$1 mi Volume 01/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/08
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
August 3140%SimNão
September 3035%SimNão
$1,2 mil Volume 30/09
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
September 3050%SimNão
September 1520%SimNão
$1,1 mil Volume 30/09
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
September 1551%SimNão
September 3051%SimNão
$957 Volume 30/09
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
21%
chance
Sim Não
$30,3 mil Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 313%SimNão
June 263%SimNão
$1,6 mi Volume 01/09
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
September 157%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$674 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Iraq by...?Will Iran target Iraq by...?
September 3040%SimNão
September 1534%SimNão
$647 Volume 30/09
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$1,7 mil Volume 31/12
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$22,4 mil Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
September 3032%SimNão
September 1520%SimNão
$379 Volume 30/09
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
September 30September 3023%SimNão
September 15September 1511%SimNão
$356 Volume 30/09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SimNão
March 311%SimNão
$294 Volume 01/01
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$344,6 mil Volume 31/12
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$160,8 mil Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$174,3 mil Volume 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$1,7 mi Volume 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$146 Volume 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SimNão
Lebanon9%SimNão
$143 Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
10%
chance
Sim Não
$73 Volume 31/12
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
December 31, 202550%SimNão
December 31, 202629%SimNão
$456,4 mil Volume 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$1,2 mi Volume
O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?O Irã concorda em entregar seu estoque de urânio enriquecido até...?
31 de dezembro8%SimNão
31 de outubro3%SimNão
$17,8 mi Volume 01/01
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$55 Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%SimNão
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SimNão
$533,3 mil Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SimNão
May 312%SimNão
$341,6 mil Volume 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$194,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$100,5 mil Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$4,1 mi Volume 01/01
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SimNão
August 311%SimNão
$137,3 mil Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SimNão
July 312%SimNão
$100,7 mil Volume 31/08
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$158,4 mil Volume 31/12
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
chance
Sim Não
$15 Volume 31/12
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$13 Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 mi Volume 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian fora do cargo até...?Masoud Pezeshkian fora do cargo até...?
December 3115%SimNão
April 301%SimNão
$865,7 mil Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$11 Volume 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SimNão
May 312%SimNão
$166,3 mil Volume 31/08
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$6 Volume 31/12
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$6 Volume 31/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$632,2 mil Volume 31/12
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$111,4 mil Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SimNão
June 301%SimNão
$21,8 mi Volume 01/01
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$12,4 mil Volume 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767,4 mil Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 312%SimNão
June 151%SimNão
$185,3 mil Volume 01/01
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$185,9 mil Volume 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 mil Volume 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
10%
chance
Sim Não
$236 mil Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Egypt by...?Will Iran target Egypt by...?
September 304%SimNão
September 152%SimNão
$21,3 mil Volume 30/09
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$53,6 mil Volume 31/12
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
93%
chance
Sim Não
$167,4 mil Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
September 306%SimNão
September 154%SimNão
$28 mil Volume 30/09
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$32,4 mil Volume 31/12
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SimNão
December 31, 20268%SimNão
$940,1 mil Volume 01/01
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 mil Volume 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 mi Volume 01/01
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