Mercados de Predicción en Israel

Los mercados de predicción en Israel cubren los escenarios centrales: resultados electorales, composición de coaliciones, mandato del PM, eventos de seguridad y guerra, y desarrollos macroeconómicos. Polymarket establece precios en tiempo real basados en la profundidad del libro de órdenes.

Estos mercados son especialmente activos alrededor de las fechas de decisión: día de elecciones, reuniones del gabinete de seguridad, sesiones del gobierno. El volumen refleja el interés global en los eventos.

71 mercados activos
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%SíNo
August 25August 2599%SíNo
$2,5 M Vol 30/09
¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027? ¿Invadirá EE. UU. Irán antes de 2027?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$84,6 mil Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 3197%SíNo
September 3089%SíNo
$26,3 M Vol 31/08
¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?¿Quién será el próximo Primer Ministro de Israel después de las próximas elecciones?
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot58%SíNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%SíNo
$33 M Vol 31/12
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$79,4 mil Vol 31/12
¿Cerrará Israel su espacio aéreo para...?¿Cerrará Israel su espacio aéreo para...?
September 308%SíNo
August 312%SíNo
$27,4 M Vol 01/10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3129%SíNo
October 3113%SíNo
$6,8 M Vol 01/01
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3196%SíNo
September 3093%SíNo
$356,8 mil Vol 01/01
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3149%SíNo
May 311%SíNo
$6 mil Vol 01/01
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita10%SíNo
VenezuelaVenezuela10%SíNo
$4,2 mil Vol 31/12
¿Israel se retirará del Líbano para...?¿Israel se retirará del Líbano para...?
December 3110%SíNo
September 302%SíNo
$8,4 M Vol 01/01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%SíNo
November 3050%SíNo
$3,6 M Vol 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 3078%SíNo
September 1546%SíNo
$2,9 mil Vol 01/10
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3128%SíNo
September 307%SíNo
$2,3 mil Vol 01/01
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
16%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
477%SíNo
513%SíNo
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/08
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%SíNo
September 302%SíNo
$22,3 mil Vol 01/01
Bank of Israel Decision in September?Bank of Israel Decision in September?
No Change90%SíNo
Decrease9%SíNo
$2,2 mil Vol 01/09
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
September 3012%SíNo
August 312%SíNo
$190,2 mil Vol 31/08
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-2935%SíNo
20-2431%SíNo
$105,8 mil Vol 27/10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,7 mil Vol 31/12
How many Israeli elections before government formed?How many Israeli elections before government formed?
171%SíNo
218%SíNo
$14,6 mil Vol 31/12
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
22%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3,7 mil Vol 27/10
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 316%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$306 mil Vol 31/08
Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?
No Endorsement65%SíNo
Likud31%SíNo
$29,3 mil Vol 28/10
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%SíNo
March 311%SíNo
$294 Vol 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3118%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$1,7 M Vol 01/01
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$146 Vol 31/12
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland16%SíNo
Lebanon9%SíNo
$143 Vol 31/12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
16%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$9,7 mil Vol 31/12
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
23%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,4 mil Vol 08/09
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud53%SíNo
YasharYashar46%SíNo
$236,6 mil Vol 27/10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
October 3150%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3111%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$1,2 M Vol
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$55 Vol 31/12
Will Israel annex any territory by...?Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20269%SíNo
June 30, 2026June 30, 20261%SíNo
$533,3 mil Vol 01/01
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
August 3111%SíNo
May 312%SíNo
$341,6 mil Vol 31/08
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$194,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$30 Vol 31/12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
October 3150%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$4,1 M Vol 01/01
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
BélgicaBélgica17%SíNo
FinlandFinland13%SíNo
$28 Vol 31/12
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
June 301%SíNo
August 311%SíNo
$137,3 mil Vol 31/08
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
91%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3 mil Vol 27/10
Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
August 313%SíNo
July 312%SíNo
$100,7 mil Vol 31/08
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
49%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$611 Vol 31/12
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 304%
$140,3 mil Vol 01/10
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
August 315%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$11 Vol 31/08
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
August 3110%SíNo
May 312%SíNo
$166,3 mil Vol 31/08
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$6 Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 315%SíNo
June 301%SíNo
$21,8 M Vol 01/01
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,1 mil Vol 31/12
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
June 301%
December 3114%
$142,2 mil Vol 01/01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 3150%SíNo
December 31, 20268%SíNo
$940,1 mil Vol 01/01
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
$3,5 M Vol 01/01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$90 mil Vol 31/12
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3 mil Vol 31/12
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$185,9 mil Vol 31/12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
11%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$236 mil Vol 31/12
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31? Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
39%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,5 mil Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 317%
June 301%
$477,9 mil Vol 01/01
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
94%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$13,7 mil Vol 27/10
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by...?
June 30, 20261%
August 31, 20261%
$95,7 mil Vol 01/09
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
12%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,1 mil Vol 31/12
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
20%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$99,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30? Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$2 mil Vol 30/09
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
15%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$484 Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 3117%SíNo
April 302%SíNo
$52,7 mil Vol 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$53,6 mil Vol 31/12
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
June 301%
December 314%
$117,8 mil Vol 01/01
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Preguntas Frecuentes sobre los Mercados de Israel

¿Qué mercados de Israel existen en Polymarket?

Mercados electorales (¿quién gana? conteo de escaños), formación de coaliciones, acciones del PM, eventos de seguridad y decisiones económicas (reducciones de tasas, cambios de leyes). Contratos binarios y de múltiples resultados.

¿Qué mueve los precios del mercado de Israel?

Encuestas, declaraciones políticas, desarrollos de seguridad e informes de medios. Los precios reaccionan en minutos a noticias significativas.

¿Puedo operar desde Israel?

Sí, a través de la cuenta de Polygon de Polymarket. Sigue los mercados en vivo en nuestro sitio y abre una cuenta a través de nuestro enlace de referencia.

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