AI · gpt

ChatGPT Outage by....?

$2.6K Volume
01/09/2026 03:59
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August 31
$2.1K Volume
85%
September 15
95%
September 30
96%
Resolved 1
August 22
$485 Volume
No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved.

This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for ChatGPT Outage by?
September 30 dominates the field at 88%; the nearest challenger, September 15, trades at just 84%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for ChatGPT Outage by?
Traders price September 30 at a 88% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the ChatGPT Outage by market resolve?
Mark 1 Sep 2026 (8 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on ChatGPT Outage by?
Total turnover stands at $2.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade ChatGPT Outage by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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