This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$56.6K Volume
1%
September 15
$16 Volume
15%
September 30
$112.4K Volume
16%
October 31
$67 Volume
66%
November 30
$864 Volume
88%
Resolved 2
June 30
$92.2K Volume
No
July 31
$19.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Gemini 4.0 released by?
At 86%, November 30 has pulled far clear of October 31 (60%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Gemini 4.0 released by?
Traders price November 30 at a 86% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Gemini 4.0 released by market resolve?
Mark 1 Dec 2026 (98 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Gemini 4.0 released by?
$281.1K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Gemini 4.0 released by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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