This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Past
<25
$1.2K Volume
16%
25-49
$1.2K Volume
75%
50-74
$327 Volume
10%
75-99
$387 Volume
2%
100+
$315 Volume
7%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
The money is on 25-49 at 75%; <25 follows at 15%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
The market makes 25-49 the favorite at 75%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24 market resolve?
Mark 30 Aug 2026 (6 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
Total turnover stands at $10.4K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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