This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
August 31
$5.2M Volume
1%
September 30
$566.3K Volume
3%
December 31
$123.5K Volume
8%
Resolved 7
March 31
$7.8M Volume
No
April 15
$8.4M Volume
No
April 30
$17.4M Volume
No
May 31
$11.2M Volume
No
June 24
$1.1M Volume
No
June 30
$13.5M Volume
No
July 31
$6.3M Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 8%, September 30 at 3%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 8%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Traders have put $71.5M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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