The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133.3K Volume
98%
Fernando Haddad
$48.1K Volume
3%
Márcio França
$10.7K Volume
1%
Erika Hilton
$22.9K Volume
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76.5K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
At 97%, Tarcísio de Freitas has pulled far clear of Fernando Haddad (3%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
With 97% implied for Tarcísio de Freitas, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the São Paulo Governor Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 4 Oct 2026 (40 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
Traders have put $291.5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade São Paulo Governor Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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