This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
Up dominates the field at 90%; the nearest challenger, Down, trades at just 10%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
Traders price Up at a 90% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 28 Feb 2027 (188 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$26K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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