This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Google
$22.1K Volume
30%
Meta
$3.6K Volume
28%
Alibaba
$5.5K Volume
15%
OpenAI
$1.4K Volume
11%
Z.ai
$803 Volume
5%
Anthropic
$804 Volume
5%
Moonshot
$951 Volume
2%
DeepSeek
$876 Volume
2%
Baidu
$847 Volume
7%
Xiaomi
$718 Volume
1%
Microsoft
$813 Volume
1%
SpaceXAI
$822 Volume
1%
Nvidia
$750 Volume
1%
Amazon
$441 Volume
1%
ByteDance
$714 Volume
1%
Thinky
$853 Volume
1%
MiniMax
$790 Volume
1%
Mistral
$669 Volume
1%
Meituan
$970 Volume
1%
Tencent
$800 Volume
1%
StepFun
$421 Volume
1%
Resolution Source: arena.ai
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Third-best AI Lab end of September?
No runaway leader here - Company A at 50% versus Company B at 50%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for Third-best AI Lab end of September?
Traders give Company A a 50% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Third-best AI Lab end of September market resolve?
Mark 30 Sep 2026 (38 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Third-best AI Lab end of September?
$2.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Third-best AI Lab end of September on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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