This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
climate
· Drought
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
Under 40%
89%
40% to 49%
86%
50% to 59%
87%
60% or more
86%
Resolution Source: agindrought.unl.edu
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
It's a genuine race: Under 40% edges the field at 47%, barely ahead of 50% to 59% at 46%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
At 47% implied for Under 40%, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1) market resolve?
The market runs until 4 Sep 2026 (10 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How can I trade What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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