This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
climate
· Drought
What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
Under 25%
90%
25% to 34%
89%
35% to 49%
90%
50% or more
90%
Resolution Source: agindrought.unl.edu
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
No runaway leader here - 35% to 49% at 48% versus 50% or more at 48%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)?
Traders give 35% to 49% a 48% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1) market resolve?
The market runs until 4 Sep 2026 (10 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How can I trade What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1) on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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