This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 10%, with No at 90%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 10% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$101.8K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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