Oil · Iran

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$275.8K Volume
01/09/2026 03:59
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August 31
$186.9K Volume
5%
Resolved 1
July 31
$88.9K Volume
No

On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.

Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.

Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.

Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
The market prices Yes at only 4%, with No at 96%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 4%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Sep 2026 (8 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
Total turnover stands at $275.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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