Cuba · Geopolitics

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

$434.1K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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December 31
$22.2K Volume
18%
Resolved 3
April 30
$136K Volume
No
June 30
$183.5K Volume
No
July 31
$92.4K Volume
No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify . Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US x Cuba economic deal by?
Yes is the outsider here at 18%, while No trades at 83%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for US x Cuba economic deal by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 18%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US x Cuba economic deal by market resolve?
The market runs until 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US x Cuba economic deal by?
Traders have put $434.1K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade US x Cuba economic deal by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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