This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
What This Market Asks
This market asks where the calendar year 2026 will rank among the hottest years in the modern global temperature record. Instead of one yes-or-no question, it is built as a set of linked outcomes: traders can back 2026 finishing as the hottest year on record, the second hottest, and so on down to sixth place or lower. Each outcome settles on its own to “Yes” or “No”, so the market as a whole reads like a probability distribution over exactly how extreme the year turns out to be.
Background and Significance
Global temperature rankings have become one of the most closely watched climate indicators. Recent years set records in quick succession, with 2023 and then 2024 each declared the warmest year measured since instrumental records began in 1880. Where a new year lands in that ordering signals whether the long-term warming trend is still climbing or briefly easing. Because the ranking depends on a full twelve months of global data, the market stays genuinely open for most of the year and rewards traders who follow the climate signal as it accumulates rather than reacting to a single heat wave.
Key Factors Traders Watch
- The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño phases tend to push global averages up, while La Niña years usually run cooler.
- The underlying greenhouse-gas warming trend, which lifts the baseline every year regardless of short-term cycles.
- Ocean heat content, since the oceans store most of the planet’s excess heat and shape the surface record.
- Large volcanic eruptions, whose aerosols can temporarily cool the global average.
- Month-by-month anomaly readings from the major agencies, which let traders update the likely annual rank in near real time.
How Resolution Works
Resolution follows NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the long-running dataset scientists use to compare years back to 1880. Once the 2026 annual figure is published, the years are ranked in descending order from hottest to coolest, and the outcome matching 2026’s position settles “Yes”. If 2026 ties another year, it resolves to the place the tied year holds. The market settles as soon as the data becomes available and is not reopened if the figures are later revised, which keeps the rule clear and verifiable for every participant.
