For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
climate
· Weather
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 16%, with No at 84%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 16%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Traders have put $340.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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