For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Climate & Science
· Weather
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 13%, while No trades at 88%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 13% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $139.5K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
Before September 1, 202670%YesNo
September 1 - 14, 202612%YesNo
104 km/h or above98%YesNo
94 to 103 km/h2%YesNo
171%YesNo
225%YesNo
↑3k99%YesNo
↑3.5k95%YesNo
October 1 - 31, 202637%YesNo
September 15 - 30, 202625%YesNo
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 202688%YesNo
August 27 to August 31, 202611%YesNo






